On Colombia, Ecuador, and Venezuela....
Summary:I guess all is well that ends well..... here is a very interesting account provided by David Fleischer -- a political science professor from Universidade de Brasilia
I the end of the Rio Meeting in Santo Domingo, amidst
applause from all sides, Colombia's president Uribe went over to
the other side of the room and shook hands with a "not too pleased"
Rafael Correa, and then with Chavez, and with Ortega (from
Nicaragua). Colombia promised not to "act and ask forgiveness
later" but insisted that it must protect its own territory from
narcotraffic.
And, on the FARC leader that was killed by his own
guerrillas, Rios, the story is also incredible -- his security
chief killed him and handed his hand, computer, and id card to the
military forces who had been closing in on this group for two
weeks. The story in the Colombian press is that Rios was totally
paranoid and driving his unit insane by moving them from place to
place, with no food for a week, and refusing to surrender ... once
he found out about Reyes' death, he prohibited anyone from making
calls and having any communications with outside. The explanation
offered by Rojas, his chief of staff... "it was either him or us".
The Colombian press concurs that FARC is truly falling apart
and Colombians are hopeful that this is the beginning of the end.
Lets see what plays out.
From David Fleischer's weekly report on Brazil (posted here
with his permission)
2. FOREIGN RELATIONS & TRADE
2.1 Venezuela (Ecuador) versus Colombia dispute
Brazil, Argentina and other South American nations were
quickly drawn in to the rapidly expanding dispute between Colombia
and Venezuela (plus Ecuador) as a result of the "episode" that
occurred on Saturday, 1 st March when Colombian Armed Forces and
police attacked a FARC base of operations 1.8 Km within Ecuadorian
territory. The Colombian forces detected a satellite phone call
made from this guerrilla camp and were to pin point the
camp’s exact location. Ironically, this was a call from Pres.
Hugo Chávez to Raúl Reyes - the number two FARC leader. This
allowed a precise strike by Colombian Air Force planes followed by
a ground incursion by Army troops and Colombian police detachment -
in an area denominated Angostura by Ecuador. This attack was very
"successful" as 22 guerrilla fighters (17 men and 5 women) plus one
Colombian soldier were killed, including FARC’s number two -
Raúl Reyesènom de guerre for Luis Edgar Devia Silva (age 59), a
labor leader in Colombia who joined the FARC some 30 years ago.
Also, another important FARC leader, Julián Conrado was killed
Reyes was the main spokes-person for the FARC, the "go-between"
with the French government, and cited as the successor of FARC
chief, Manuel Marluanda [ Tirofijo].
Reportedly, similar attacks by Colombian forces last year
killed two other important FARC leaders - Tomás Medina Caracas [
Negro Acácio] and Martín Caballero. The air attack on the FARC base
just inside Ecuador was executed Super-Tucano jet prop fighters
made by Embraer. In 2005, Colombia purchased 25 of these planes for
US$234 million. These planes are equipped with the same
sophisticated electronic gear of latest generation of supersonic
jet fighter planes, including night vision and laser guided
missiles. The Super-Tucanos can stay aloft for patrols up to 7
hours. The Colombian Air Force (FAC) has two electronic
surveillance planes that are supplemented by data transmitted by US
Air Force AWACS that operate out of the Manta base in Ecuador. The
FAC Super-Tucano planes are also equipped with saturation cluster
bombs that are highly lethal.
Analysts in Colombia affirm that this could be the "beginning
of the end of the FARC" because of the technical and fire power
superiority of Colombia’s armed forces. They think that Iván
Márquez is a probable successor to Raúl Reyes in the FARC
organization - because of his close relations with Venezuela and
France. However, on 5 th March, the FARC announced that Joaquín
Gómez would replace Raul Reyes as "number two". Goméz (age 61) was
very close to Raúl Reyes and commanded the FARC guerrillas in
southern Colombia. He was trained as an engineer in the USSR in the
late 1960s ant joined the FARC in the early 1980s. He was part of
the FARC team that negotiated with Colombian presidents Samper and
Pastrana. None the less, Goméz is considered a FARC "hardliner",
and the US has offered a US$2.5 million "reward" for his capture.
He is considered the main FARC strategist for mass attacks on
police outposts and the taking of hostages.
On Saturday, Colombian President Alvaro Uribe publicly
apologized to Ecuador and asked the "indulgence" of Pres. Rafael
Correa. As expected, Ecuador was very "indignant" and reviewed a
long series of "border violations" by Colombia, many of which
Ecuador had not contested publicly. In spite of this "gesture",
Ecuador expelled the Colombian ambassador, recalled its ambassador
from Bogotá and moved troops to its border with Colombia.
Pres. Chavez is contemplating the presentation of a complaint
before the International Penal Court in The Hague - that Chávez and
Venezuela "had supported and financed terrorism in Colombia" [the
FRAC guerrillas]. However, Venezuela was much more than "indignant"
and Pres. Hugo Chávez closed Venezuela’s embassy in Bogotá
and mobilized five tank battalions at the Venezuelan- Colombian
border - all battle ready [ Read: Ready to invade Colombian
territory] - and put his powerful air force on alert. Fidel Castro
chimed in to criticize Colombia’s actions.
Raúl Reyes had been Chávez main "go-between" to negotiate the
release of the five hostages held by the FARC recently. Colombia
retorted quickly when the Director of Colombia’s national
police force, Óscar Naranjo, told reporters that the documents
(including laptops) confiscated by Colombian troops at the FARC
camp within Ecuador confirmed meetings between Reyes and Gustavo
Larrea - the Minister for National Security of Ecuador. More
bombastic, Naranjo said that these documents also revealed that
Pres. Hugo Chávez had "donated" some US$300 million to "these
narco-traffic guerrillas". Several times, Chávez has called for the
FARC to be awarded "belligerent status" that was seen as open
support by Venezuela for this guerrilla group. Is this alleged
financial support is confirmed, this would indicate more than just
"open support".
On 4 th March, former Chávez ally and his ex-Defense
Minister, Gen. Raúl Baduel confirmed the US$300 million that
Venezuela transferred to the FARC - as payment (compensation) for
the release of hostages, within a scheme to benefit Pres. Chávez in
terms of "publicity". High jinx!!! "Saber-rattling" to off-set even
increasing problems at home (in Venezuela)??? On Monday, the
Brazilian government became involved, in an effort to "cool down"
this dispute and "not throw any more gasoline on the already raging
fire". Pres. Lula convoked an emergency meeting of his political
council and invited Foreign Minister Celso Amorim to brief this
group about the Colombia -- Ecuador & Venezuela dispute (Amorim
is not regular participant of this Council). Pres. Lula had phone
conversations on Monday with Presidents Alvaro Uribe, Rafael Correa
and Cristina Kirchner.
This "problem" was discussed at an emergency meeting of the
OAS in Washington on Tuesday, 4 th March. As the OAS meeting began,
Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa began a 5-nation trip to
consolidate his accusations against Colombia’s violation of
Ecuador’s sovereignty by invading its territory on 1 st
March. Correa will visit Peru, Brazil, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and
Panamá - ending his trip on Thursday, 6 th March (Holy Thursday) at
the Rio Group Summit in Santo Domingo. While in Managua, Correa was
able to convince Pres. Daniel Ortega to formally break of
diplomatic relations with Colombia. In contrast, Pres. Alvaro Uribe
said that Colombia would denounce Venezuela at the International
Court of Justice in The Hague for "harboring terrorists" and for
financing the Farces activities against the Colombian government.
Without exception, all other South American countries condemned
Colombia’s incursion into Ecuador’s territory.
Rafael Corrêa arrived in Brasília on the evening of 4 th
March and held meetings with Pres. Lula on 5 th March. Reportedly,
Pres. Lula counseled his younger colleague to refrain from having
any relations with (or provide "cover" for) the FARC. Reportedly,
this meeting was quite "tense" and Lula avoided appearing beside
Correa during his press conference. After some 14 hours of
protracted negotiations (with several interruptions) during the OAS
emergency meeting in Washington, DC, a final resolution was
hammered out and accepted by all 34 nations present - in
mid-afternoon of 5th March. Finally, Ecuador withdrew its demand
that the OAS condemn Colombia for its invasion of Ecuador and that
the OAS impose sanctions on Colombia. In return, the OAS resolution
described Colombia’s military action on 1 st March as a
"violation the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ecuador"
and created a commission headed by OAS Secretary General José
Miguel Insulza to investigate this case - exactly what Brasil had
proposed - but with no sanctions imposed on Colombia. The other
members of this commission are Brazil, Argentina, Peru, Bahamas,
and Panamá.
However, Colombia did not withdraw its threat to take
Venezuela to the International Court in The Hague. Venezuela said
that the "real" articulator of Colombia’s aggressive actions
is the US. Brazil, Argentina and Chile joined forces to pressure
for approval of this proposal at the OAS. This commission is to
draft a report to the OAS council for the next 17th March meeting.
The position of Brasil is quite clear - this is a bi-lateral
question between Colombia and Ecuador and Pres. Lula is trying to
isolate [reject] the involvement [intromission] of Venezuela and
the US in this conflict. To this end, Lula has not returned
insistent phone calls from Pres. Hugo Chávez this week, while
continuing his articulations with Argentina and Chile + Colombia
and Ecuador. France was very upset and stated that Pres. Uribe knew
full well that Raúl Reyes was the chief FRAC negotiator with France
and that he was on the verge of liberating another group of
hostages via Hugo Chávez. The press understood that this statement
insinuated that Uribe had ordered the destruction and invasion of
the FARC camp just inside Ecuador’s border exactly for that
very reason.
Hugo Chávez ordered his troops to close the border with
Venezuela on 3rd March that caused long lines of trucks backed up
on the Colombian side - most loaded with foodstuffs for Venezuelan
markets. However, two days later, Chávez ordered the border
re-opened to allow the food-trucks to enter Venezuela. The press
made another speculative conclusion on 5 th March, regarding the
concentration of Venezuelan troops on its northern border with
Colombia was to impede another Colombian invasion (or air attack) -
this time into the Venezuelan state of Barinas in an attempt to
kill FARC’s "number one" Manuel Marluanda [ tirofijo] - who
reportedly is very sick and hiding out in Venezuela near the
Colombian border. When a guerrilla group looses its "sanctuary"
[haven] status in a neighboring country, this is usually a very
hard blow to such groups’ activities -as in the case of ETA
that lost its "sanctuary" status in France.
On 6 th March, the Ecuador Army arrested 5 suspected
guerrillas near the area where the FARC base-camp was attacked on 1
st March. On 7 th March, Colombia announced that FARC’s
number three leader - Iván Ríos [Manuel Muñoz Ortiz] had been
killed in a battle with the Colombia Army (that same day) in a
rural area of the município of Samaná, 400 Km west of Bogotá. Ríos
(age around 40) was a former seminary student (preparing for the
priesthood) and was one of the closest colleagues to Manuel
Marulanda [ Tirofijo]. Brazilian Senators feel that because of
Pres. Hugo Chávez recent intromission into the Colombia-Ecuador
conflict should make the approval of Venezuela as a permanent
member of Mercosul even more difficult.
2.2 Condoleezza Rice èBrasília
Reportedly, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will make
a brief visit Brasília on Thursday, 13th March. She will meet with
Pres. Lula and do lunch with Foreign Minister Celso Amorim before
flying to Salvador, Bahia. On Friday, 14 th March, Secretary Rice
will fly to Santiago, Chile - the next stop on her South American
agenda. Although the "official" agenda for the Lula-Condoleezza
encounter highlights bio-fuels (and was organized before the
Colombia-Ecuador conflict irrupted) most observers think that this
conflict should be included in this agenda. The US fully supports
the role of Brazil as the major intermediary for this crisis, but
"discretely" disagreed with the content of the OAS resolution
sponsored by Brazil - but in the end the US voted in favor of this
proposal.
During her short visit to Salvador, BA, MS. Rice will meet
with Gov. Jacques Wagner (PT) to discuss the installation of a
"joint agenda" against racial discrimination.
2.3 Rio Group meets in Santo Domingo
On 6 th March, representatives of the "Rio Group" countries
arrived in Santo Domingo, DR for their 20th Summit meeting. During
the meeting on 7 th Mach, Pres. Hugo Chávez proposed that the FARC
be "transformed" into a political party in Colombia, "without
having to kill its leaders". He said that the FARC should be
allowed to turn in their arms, should "humanize" their war, and
refrain from taking hostages. Chávez harshly criticized the posture
of the George Bush government [favoring Colombia] and recalled the
role of former US President Bill Clinton, who in the 1990s
articulated the pacification of Guatemala.
Pres. Lula did not attend this meeting of the Rio Group. He
was occupied in Rio de Janeiro with the visit of Portuguese
President Cavaco Silva (See Item 2.4) and a visit to the Complexo
do Alemão (a large Rio slum) - See Item 1.7. Brazil was represented
by Foreign Minister Celso Amorim. The following presidents attended
this summit in the DR: Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Chile,
Mexico, Guatemala, Argentina, Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru,
Nicaragua, Guyana, Paraguay, Panamá, El Salvador, Colombian
President Alvaro Uribe refused to participate in the official
photograph of those in attendance.
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