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WHesterN Hemisphere

Annette Hester's Blog

On Colombia, Ecuador, and Venezuela....

I guess all is well that ends well..... here is a very interesting account provided by David Fleischer -- a political science professor from Universidade de Brasilia
I the end of the Rio Meeting in Santo Domingo, amidst applause from all sides, Colombia's president Uribe went over to the other side of the room and shook hands with a "not too pleased" Rafael Correa, and then with Chavez, and with Ortega (from Nicaragua). Colombia promised not to "act and ask forgiveness later" but insisted that it must protect its own territory from narcotraffic.

And, on the FARC leader that was killed by his own guerrillas, Rios, the story is also incredible -- his security chief killed him and handed his hand, computer, and id card to the military forces who had been closing in on this group for two weeks. The story in the Colombian press is that Rios was totally paranoid and driving his unit insane by moving them from place to place, with no food for a week, and refusing to surrender ... once he found out about Reyes' death, he prohibited anyone from making calls and having any communications with outside. The explanation offered by Rojas, his chief of staff... "it was either him or us".

The Colombian press concurs that FARC is truly falling apart and Colombians are hopeful that this is the beginning of the end.

Lets see what plays out.

From David Fleischer's weekly report on Brazil (posted here with his permission)

2. FOREIGN RELATIONS & TRADE

2.1 Venezuela (Ecuador) versus Colombia dispute
Brazil, Argentina and other South American nations were quickly drawn in to the rapidly expanding dispute between Colombia and Venezuela (plus Ecuador) as a result of the "episode" that occurred on Saturday, 1 st March when Colombian Armed Forces and police attacked a FARC base of operations 1.8 Km within Ecuadorian territory. The Colombian forces detected a satellite phone call made from this guerrilla camp and were to pin point the camp’s exact location. Ironically, this was a call from Pres. Hugo Chávez to Raúl Reyes - the number two FARC leader. This allowed a precise strike by Colombian Air Force planes followed by a ground incursion by Army troops and Colombian police detachment - in an area denominated Angostura by Ecuador. This attack was very "successful" as 22 guerrilla fighters (17 men and 5 women) plus one Colombian soldier were killed, including FARC’s number two - Raúl Reyesènom de guerre for Luis Edgar Devia Silva (age 59), a labor leader in Colombia who joined the FARC some 30 years ago. Also, another important FARC leader, Julián Conrado was killed Reyes was the main spokes-person for the FARC, the "go-between" with the French government, and cited as the successor of FARC chief, Manuel Marluanda [ Tirofijo].

Reportedly, similar attacks by Colombian forces last year killed two other important FARC leaders - Tomás Medina Caracas [ Negro Acácio] and Martín Caballero. The air attack on the FARC base just inside Ecuador was executed Super-Tucano jet prop fighters made by Embraer. In 2005, Colombia purchased 25 of these planes for US$234 million. These planes are equipped with the same sophisticated electronic gear of latest generation of supersonic jet fighter planes, including night vision and laser guided missiles. The Super-Tucanos can stay aloft for patrols up to 7 hours. The Colombian Air Force (FAC) has two electronic surveillance planes that are supplemented by data transmitted by US Air Force AWACS that operate out of the Manta base in Ecuador. The FAC Super-Tucano planes are also equipped with saturation cluster bombs that are highly lethal.

Analysts in Colombia affirm that this could be the "beginning of the end of the FARC" because of the technical and fire power superiority of Colombia’s armed forces. They think that Iván Márquez is a probable successor to Raúl Reyes in the FARC organization - because of his close relations with Venezuela and France. However, on 5 th March, the FARC announced that Joaquín Gómez would replace Raul Reyes as "number two". Goméz (age 61) was very close to Raúl Reyes and commanded the FARC guerrillas in southern Colombia. He was trained as an engineer in the USSR in the late 1960s ant joined the FARC in the early 1980s. He was part of the FARC team that negotiated with Colombian presidents Samper and Pastrana. None the less, Goméz is considered a FARC "hardliner", and the US has offered a US$2.5 million "reward" for his capture. He is considered the main FARC strategist for mass attacks on police outposts and the taking of hostages.

On Saturday, Colombian President Alvaro Uribe publicly apologized to Ecuador and asked the "indulgence" of Pres. Rafael Correa. As expected, Ecuador was very "indignant" and reviewed a long series of "border violations" by Colombia, many of which Ecuador had not contested publicly. In spite of this "gesture", Ecuador expelled the Colombian ambassador, recalled its ambassador from Bogotá and moved troops to its border with Colombia.

Pres. Chavez is contemplating the presentation of a complaint before the International Penal Court in The Hague - that Chávez and Venezuela "had supported and financed terrorism in Colombia" [the FRAC guerrillas]. However, Venezuela was much more than "indignant" and Pres. Hugo Chávez closed Venezuela’s embassy in Bogotá and mobilized five tank battalions at the Venezuelan- Colombian border - all battle ready [ Read: Ready to invade Colombian territory] - and put his powerful air force on alert. Fidel Castro chimed in to criticize Colombia’s actions.

Raúl Reyes had been Chávez main "go-between" to negotiate the release of the five hostages held by the FARC recently. Colombia retorted quickly when the Director of Colombia’s national police force, Óscar Naranjo, told reporters that the documents (including laptops) confiscated by Colombian troops at the FARC camp within Ecuador confirmed meetings between Reyes and Gustavo Larrea - the Minister for National Security of Ecuador. More bombastic, Naranjo said that these documents also revealed that Pres. Hugo Chávez had "donated" some US$300 million to "these narco-traffic guerrillas". Several times, Chávez has called for the FARC to be awarded "belligerent status" that was seen as open support by Venezuela for this guerrilla group. Is this alleged financial support is confirmed, this would indicate more than just "open support".

On 4 th March, former Chávez ally and his ex-Defense Minister, Gen. Raúl Baduel confirmed the US$300 million that Venezuela transferred to the FARC - as payment (compensation) for the release of hostages, within a scheme to benefit Pres. Chávez in terms of "publicity". High jinx!!! "Saber-rattling" to off-set even increasing problems at home (in Venezuela)??? On Monday, the Brazilian government became involved, in an effort to "cool down" this dispute and "not throw any more gasoline on the already raging fire". Pres. Lula convoked an emergency meeting of his political council and invited Foreign Minister Celso Amorim to brief this group about the Colombia -- Ecuador & Venezuela dispute (Amorim is not regular participant of this Council). Pres. Lula had phone conversations on Monday with Presidents Alvaro Uribe, Rafael Correa and Cristina Kirchner.

This "problem" was discussed at an emergency meeting of the OAS in Washington on Tuesday, 4 th March. As the OAS meeting began, Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa began a 5-nation trip to consolidate his accusations against Colombia’s violation of Ecuador’s sovereignty by invading its territory on 1 st March. Correa will visit Peru, Brazil, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Panamá - ending his trip on Thursday, 6 th March (Holy Thursday) at the Rio Group Summit in Santo Domingo. While in Managua, Correa was able to convince Pres. Daniel Ortega to formally break of diplomatic relations with Colombia. In contrast, Pres. Alvaro Uribe said that Colombia would denounce Venezuela at the International Court of Justice in The Hague for "harboring terrorists" and for financing the Farces activities against the Colombian government. Without exception, all other South American countries condemned Colombia’s incursion into Ecuador’s territory.

Rafael Corrêa arrived in Brasília on the evening of 4 th March and held meetings with Pres. Lula on 5 th March. Reportedly, Pres. Lula counseled his younger colleague to refrain from having any relations with (or provide "cover" for) the FARC. Reportedly, this meeting was quite "tense" and Lula avoided appearing beside Correa during his press conference. After some 14 hours of protracted negotiations (with several interruptions) during the OAS emergency meeting in Washington, DC, a final resolution was hammered out and accepted by all 34 nations present - in mid-afternoon of 5th March. Finally, Ecuador withdrew its demand that the OAS condemn Colombia for its invasion of Ecuador and that the OAS impose sanctions on Colombia. In return, the OAS resolution described Colombia’s military action on 1 st March as a "violation the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ecuador" and created a commission headed by OAS Secretary General José Miguel Insulza to investigate this case - exactly what Brasil had proposed - but with no sanctions imposed on Colombia. The other members of this commission are Brazil, Argentina, Peru, Bahamas, and Panamá.

However, Colombia did not withdraw its threat to take Venezuela to the International Court in The Hague. Venezuela said that the "real" articulator of Colombia’s aggressive actions is the US. Brazil, Argentina and Chile joined forces to pressure for approval of this proposal at the OAS. This commission is to draft a report to the OAS council for the next 17th March meeting. The position of Brasil is quite clear - this is a bi-lateral question between Colombia and Ecuador and Pres. Lula is trying to isolate [reject] the involvement [intromission] of Venezuela and the US in this conflict. To this end, Lula has not returned insistent phone calls from Pres. Hugo Chávez this week, while continuing his articulations with Argentina and Chile + Colombia and Ecuador. France was very upset and stated that Pres. Uribe knew full well that Raúl Reyes was the chief FRAC negotiator with France and that he was on the verge of liberating another group of hostages via Hugo Chávez. The press understood that this statement insinuated that Uribe had ordered the destruction and invasion of the FARC camp just inside Ecuador’s border exactly for that very reason.

Hugo Chávez ordered his troops to close the border with Venezuela on 3rd March that caused long lines of trucks backed up on the Colombian side - most loaded with foodstuffs for Venezuelan markets. However, two days later, Chávez ordered the border re-opened to allow the food-trucks to enter Venezuela. The press made another speculative conclusion on 5 th March, regarding the concentration of Venezuelan troops on its northern border with Colombia was to impede another Colombian invasion (or air attack) - this time into the Venezuelan state of Barinas in an attempt to kill FARC’s "number one" Manuel Marluanda [ tirofijo] - who reportedly is very sick and hiding out in Venezuela near the Colombian border. When a guerrilla group looses its "sanctuary" [haven] status in a neighboring country, this is usually a very hard blow to such groups’ activities -as in the case of ETA that lost its "sanctuary" status in France.

On 6 th March, the Ecuador Army arrested 5 suspected guerrillas near the area where the FARC base-camp was attacked on 1 st March. On 7 th March, Colombia announced that FARC’s number three leader - Iván Ríos [Manuel Muñoz Ortiz] had been killed in a battle with the Colombia Army (that same day) in a rural area of the município of Samaná, 400 Km west of Bogotá. Ríos (age around 40) was a former seminary student (preparing for the priesthood) and was one of the closest colleagues to Manuel Marulanda [ Tirofijo]. Brazilian Senators feel that because of Pres. Hugo Chávez recent intromission into the Colombia-Ecuador conflict should make the approval of Venezuela as a permanent member of Mercosul even more difficult.

2.2 Condoleezza Rice èBrasília

Reportedly, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will make a brief visit Brasília on Thursday, 13th March. She will meet with Pres. Lula and do lunch with Foreign Minister Celso Amorim before flying to Salvador, Bahia. On Friday, 14 th March, Secretary Rice will fly to Santiago, Chile - the next stop on her South American agenda. Although the "official" agenda for the Lula-Condoleezza encounter highlights bio-fuels (and was organized before the Colombia-Ecuador conflict irrupted) most observers think that this conflict should be included in this agenda. The US fully supports the role of Brazil as the major intermediary for this crisis, but "discretely" disagreed with the content of the OAS resolution sponsored by Brazil - but in the end the US voted in favor of this proposal.

During her short visit to Salvador, BA, MS. Rice will meet with Gov. Jacques Wagner (PT) to discuss the installation of a "joint agenda" against racial discrimination.

2.3 Rio Group meets in Santo Domingo

On 6 th March, representatives of the "Rio Group" countries arrived in Santo Domingo, DR for their 20th Summit meeting. During the meeting on 7 th Mach, Pres. Hugo Chávez proposed that the FARC be "transformed" into a political party in Colombia, "without having to kill its leaders". He said that the FARC should be allowed to turn in their arms, should "humanize" their war, and refrain from taking hostages. Chávez harshly criticized the posture of the George Bush government [favoring Colombia] and recalled the role of former US President Bill Clinton, who in the 1990s articulated the pacification of Guatemala.

Pres. Lula did not attend this meeting of the Rio Group. He was occupied in Rio de Janeiro with the visit of Portuguese President Cavaco Silva (See Item 2.4) and a visit to the Complexo do Alemão (a large Rio slum) - See Item 1.7. Brazil was represented by Foreign Minister Celso Amorim. The following presidents attended this summit in the DR: Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Chile, Mexico, Guatemala, Argentina, Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Nicaragua, Guyana, Paraguay, Panamá, El Salvador, Colombian President Alvaro Uribe refused to participate in the official photograph of those in attendance.
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