Out of Africa

When the Southern African Development Community (SADC) met in Lusaka last year, all most people wanted to talk about was Zimbabwe. Civil society groups, the media and ordinary Zimbabwean citizens gathered in a number of dynamic forums to envision a way forward for the troubled state.

Summit organizers and SADC heads of state, on the other hand, just wanted the problem to go away. Zambian president Levy Mwanawasa - who famously stepped out of line and compared Zimbabwe to the Titanic months earlier - backpedalled on previous criticisms and posed for cosy photo ops with Mugabe. Official statements on the situation were mildly critical at best.

So perhaps it shouldn't be surprising that SADC mediation, led by South African president Thabo Mbeki, has started to breakdown as the election draws near. Opposition leader Morgan Tsvingirai has accused the delegation of protecting the ruling regime. Without a new constitution and international observation, he believes that SADC is just legitimizing what will turn out to be another rigged election.

According to my Zimbabwean landlady - always a great source of analysis as she works at a civil society NGO in Harare - this is because none of the SADC heads of state have ability to stand up to Mugabe. Around the region there is a crop of newly elected (relatively speaking) governments whose populations are becoming increasingly uneasy with foreign investment. Supporting Mugabe - who, for many, still stands for a bold vision of post-colonial economic independence - is an easy way of reminding voters that they still have faith in African-led development.

In this context, Mbeki was never going to be able to make headway with the older, wiser and vastly more experienced Mugabe. As the landlady suggests, the only people that could do that are his contemporaries from the independence era. Nelson Mandela would be the perfect choice, if his health were better. An overlooked candidate could be Kenneth Kaunda, the first president of Zambia and an old friend of Mugabe.

With some persistent arm-twisting, KK, as he's known, transitioned Zambia from his personal fiefdom into a semi-functioning multi-party state. The country, in stark contrast with Zim, has been improving ever since. That might be a good point to start the negotiations.