Out of Africa

Analysts say this election, more than any other, is a chance to bring with it real change for Zimbabwe. That might be true. But it doesn't look like it will be of the peaceful, democratic variety.

If there were any pretensions before, in the past week it's become clear that Mugabe, fairly openly, will commit mass electoral fraud to stay in power. As if controlling the police, military, election commission and judiciary weren't enough, now there's a conspicious glut of ballots lying around, allegedly to allow for military and civil service personnel voting from outside the country (ironic because Zim's four million-strong diaspora can't vote, and would almost certainly vote for opposition leaders).

The chief of police has said that he will "not allow" any other party to win. Now, any officers that step out of party line are being arrested. There are not enough polling stations in urban areas that support rival parties. Districts have been gerrymandered to favour the ruling party's rural base. Even if, after all of that, Simba Makoni or Morgan Tsvangirai turn up with more votes, ballot stuffing could ensure that Mugabe wins without a runoff (if one candidate doesn't receive more than 50 percent). If there is a runoff, things will get really exciting.

For the more Mugabe feels threatened, the tighter he will cling to power. Even with all the media attention the country's getting, his acolytes are unabashedly admitting they will be ignoring the will of their beleagured people. With the inflation, shortages, unemployment and general rot that's taken over the Zimbabwe, that could be a very dangerous thing to do.

While there doesn't seem to be any electoral scenario where Mugabe won't win, I don't think there's a situation where, if he so openly fixes results, Zimbabweans will accept his legitimacy.

How to solve that inevitable mess will be something to talk about after the voting. For now, let's see what happens leading up to Saturday.