The CPI in the US has fallen by 1% in Oct 2008. This sparked
off a conversation about deflation, its costs,
causes, and
implications.
The costs are clear. With falling prices, firms will find it
more and more difficult to make profits or break even. Given low or
negative profits, they will be forced to cut costs further. This
moves into a deflationary spiral.
What are the policy implications? One of the worst hit areas
in a deflationary spiral is of course, monetary policy. As real
interest rates go to zero, monetary policy moves towards the
liquidity trap (a situation where the interest rate transmission
channel breaks down). In an open economy, there is an intuitive
arbitraged relationship between exchange rates and interest rates
under a concept called interest rate parity. Basically, if two
countries have varying interest rates, the expected difference in
their exchange rates will offset any arbitrage opportunities off of
their differing interest rates. Zero interest rates spark off the
risk of pressure on the dollar to depreciate.
Simple answer - print money. This is the argument of many
economists,
who say that printing money (expansionary monetary policy at its
best) is the easiest way to combat deflation.
How does this relate to India? It doesn't. With our WPI
inflation touching 8.99% (annual),
policymakers seem to have relaxed a little regarding
inflationary pressure. All focus is now on liquidity.
2 Comments
Varun Khandelwal
deflation is serious problem confronting the global economy.. read my sequence of posts at http://www.varunkhandelwal.com/search/label/Deflation
Varun Khandelwal
Read Bernanke's Nov 2002 speech on deflation in the US.. a got a post on it at http://www.varunkhandelwal.com/2008/11/bernanke-on-deflation.html