Data issues
The
RBI just released its
annual
report for 2007-8, where it explains its monetary policy
actions for the past year and outlook on the year ahead. This
document, combined with the newly released
GDP figures for the economy (at 7.9%) show a subdued positive
expectation for growth - a slowdown is on the cards, but not one
of very high intensity.
This got me thinking about business cycles in India. There seems to have been very little research on identifying proper business cycles in the past and using them to forecast or understand what is happening at present. To the best of my knowledge, there is also little cyclical or seasonal adjustment of statistics such as those of GDP, inflation and growth. Are these dimensions not considered properly or not very important? Or am I mistaken in my understanding?
In an economy with such a high (although decreasing) dependence on the monsoon, seasonal adjustment is extremely important for better understanding of data. There has been a paper written by NIPFP on the issue of cyclically adjusted data on inflation in India. But my concern is the inflation data itself - would using the WPI as an indicator of inflation be useful when it consists of 453 items, over half of which have not changed in price over many years? Are there really as many data issues as there seem to be?
CMIE has an excellent (though pricey) database on Indian macroeconomics. Understandably, private agencies charge for forecasting and reporting data. The RBI has an excellent source of data dissemination - the Handbook of Statistics.SEBI has a similar handbook on government securities, and MoF publishes a very useful Economic Survey which has comprehensive data on many macroeconomic variables. But none of these contain cyclically adjusted data. Or am I missing something?
This got me thinking about business cycles in India. There seems to have been very little research on identifying proper business cycles in the past and using them to forecast or understand what is happening at present. To the best of my knowledge, there is also little cyclical or seasonal adjustment of statistics such as those of GDP, inflation and growth. Are these dimensions not considered properly or not very important? Or am I mistaken in my understanding?
In an economy with such a high (although decreasing) dependence on the monsoon, seasonal adjustment is extremely important for better understanding of data. There has been a paper written by NIPFP on the issue of cyclically adjusted data on inflation in India. But my concern is the inflation data itself - would using the WPI as an indicator of inflation be useful when it consists of 453 items, over half of which have not changed in price over many years? Are there really as many data issues as there seem to be?
CMIE has an excellent (though pricey) database on Indian macroeconomics. Understandably, private agencies charge for forecasting and reporting data. The RBI has an excellent source of data dissemination - the Handbook of Statistics.SEBI has a similar handbook on government securities, and MoF publishes a very useful Economic Survey which has comprehensive data on many macroeconomic variables. But none of these contain cyclically adjusted data. Or am I missing something?
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