Sustainable Energy Transitioner
Ushering in a Climate Responsible Energy Future
When can Renewables take over to provide all new electricity needs in the US?
It is an amazing feat that wind power has been America’s 2nd largest source of new electricity these past three years (natural gas being #1). And last year’s 45% growth (5.2 new GW) exceeded most industry cheerleaders’ expectations. But a key question that comes up for me is, “When can renewables provide all new power needs?”
This of course depends on our ability to integrate efficiency as well. For instance, higher prices for oil is inducing a decrease in US demand in 2008 as we purchase smaller cars and drive less. Electricity prices are rising and could lower new demand, but there will need to be new generating capacity in the years ahead if only to replace aging plants slated to shut down. I simplify renewables to equal wind and solar at this point, because they are key sources in the US and I find it harder to get data on geothermal and biomass.
For this blog I will use the EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (Early Release) projection that new future electricity demand will grow 1.1% on average through 2030. This is roughly equivalent to 15 GW of nameplate capacity over the next several years based on a 70% capacity factor for the portfolio of electricity sources. But for more intermittent wind and solar, their 30% capacity factor makes a higher 36 GW the additional need to provide all new electricity. Comparing the ~5.5 GW of new wind and solar in 2007 (5.24 wind, .22 solar) to 36 GW shows we have a lot of development to do. But an annual growth rate less than half of last year (~50% acceleration in growth) would make the path as short as five years. [To explain, the 5.5 GW of new capacity was over 100% more than the almost 2.65 GW added in 2006.] Therefore, if we continue to support renewables (through a renewal of production tax credits and other programs), we can begin to wean ourselves off of fossil fuels as early as 2013 and certainly during the mid-2010s.
There would definitely be growing pains for the renewables industries to accomplish such rapid expansion. But $200 oil predicted by many analysts, and its upward pull on prices of substitutes natural gas and coal, would support such a transition. The more efficiency we can integrate into our lifestyles and economic system, the sooner and faster we can get greenhouse gas emissions and energy insecurity on a downward trend. Fossil fuels will still be important going forward, but their current stranglehold on our wallets and our atmosphere would be reduced.
About
After undergraduate studies at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, five years in the nonprofit sector, and completing the Master in Public Affairs program at Princeton's Woodrow Wilson School, I am now launching a career in energy and climate change policy. My focus is on oil scarcity and the necessary transition to an efficient use of renewables to strengthen our economy and lower carbon emissions simultaneously.
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2 Comments
Brodie Ross
I keep going back to a quote that I heard at CIGI's annual conference that seems apt to the renewables portfolio. We need to stop subsidizng the "good" and start taxing the "bad." Subsdies for renewables mainly benefit those individuals who would have adopted the technology anyways and do little to spur the wholesale change that is needed with respect to energy generation. Renewables will likely be unfeasible until an appropriate price is placed on carbon emissions both for industry and individual users at the gas pumps. Unfortunately, while this is what may be needed to spur a renewables revolution, putting a price on carbon, especially at the pumps, is an unpopular political move especially given the rising price of oil.
Dennis Markatos
Brodie,
Thanks for the response. I agree that a price on carbon is an important instrument and believe that a cap & trade system may be the best route for political passage in the US. But subsidizing the "good" wind electricity generation has been effective. You can see that the production tax credit (PTC of ~2 cents per kWh) for wind helps the industry grow quickly in the US (like 45% in 2007) -- showing wind is feasible under current incentives. When the PTC expired in the early 2000s, the wind industry ground to a halt - showing the policy mechanism had a strong effect. I hope that we will be able to lower the subsidies for wind in the years ahead as it gets more and more competitive with other fossil fuel options, and that we can get a cap & trade system in place by 2012 to spur further innovation and development throughout the low-carbon portfolio of options.