Disarming Conflict

In September the Washington-based Arms Control Association published an extensive set of responses from then Democratic candidate Barack Obama to a series of arms control questions. The complete questions and answers are available at the ACA website.[i] The following notes some of the key nuclear disarmament commitments measures which he addressed.

Support for NPT and the elimination of nuclear weapons:

“As president, I will set a new direction in nuclear weapons policy and show the world that America believes in its existing commitment under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty [NPT] to work to ultimately to eliminate all nuclear weapons.” He also reaffirmed the call by George Shultz, Henry Kissinger, William Perry, and Sam Nunn, issued in January 2007 and again in 2008, to begin working for a world without nuclear weapons.

Prevent use/ maintain deterrence:

He said that “the most important objective with respect to nuclear weapons is doing everything we can to prevent the use of any such weapons, anywhere in the world.” And in that context he declared the importance of deterrence: “So long as nuclear weapons exist, the United States needs to retain nuclear weapons to prevent this from happening.”

New arms control/reduction measures:

He promised to “seek real, verifiable reductions in all U.S. and Russian nuclear weapons—whether deployed or nondeployed, whether strategic or nonstrategic—and work with other nuclear powers to reduce global stockpiles dramatically by the end of my presidency.” The references to reductions in “nondeployed” weapons implies a commitment to irreversible reductions (as distinct from the 2002 Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT) which takes systems out of deployment but does not require their destruction and thus keeps them available for redeployment). He went on to state his commitment “to working with Russia and other nuclear weapon states to make deep cuts in global stockpiles by the end of my first term.” He also said that, “as president, I will also immediately stand down all nuclear forces to be reduced under [SORT]and urge Russia to do the same.”

START:

He said a good beginning to the development of new arrangements to reduce arsenals would be to “seek Russia’s agreement to extend essential monitoring and verification provisions of the [Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty] START I before it expires in December 2009.”

De-alerting:

Obama said that “keeping nuclear weapons ready to launch on a moment’s notice is a dangerous relic of the Cold War. Such policies increase the risk of catastrophic accidents or miscalculation. I believe that we must address this dangerous situation….” Hence, he said, “I will work with Russia in a mutual and verifiable manner to increase warning and decision time prior to the launch of nuclear weapons.”

Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT):

The Obama presidency should be a major boost to CTBT ratification efforts, a move that would generate extensive and positive ripples throughout the nonproliferation community in general and for the 2010 NPT Review Conference in particular. He said: “I will reach out to the Senate to secure the ratification of the CTBT at the earliest practical date and will then launch a diplomatic effort to bring onboard other states whose ratifications are required for the treaty to enter into force.”

Fissile Materials Cut-Off Treaty (FMCT):

He was similarly positive on the FMCT: “I will lead a global effort to negotiate a verifiable treaty ending the production of fissile materials for weapons purposes.”

New nuclear weapons:

While not referring directly to the controversial reliable replacement warhead[ii] program, Obama said he “will not authorize the development of new nuclear weapons.”

The Nuclear Fuel Cycle:

Obama promised to work toward a “new nuclear energy architecture” that would include “an international nuclear fuel bank, international nuclear fuel-cycle centers, and reliable fuel supply assurances.” He said “our nuclear security and that of our allies requires that the expansion of nuclear reactors for electricity generation is not accompanied by the expansion of sensitive nuclear fuel-cycle facilities that can produce bomb-grade plutonium and uranium.” He said “an international system that ensures access to reasonably priced fuel will encourage developing countries that they do not need sensitive nuclear fuel-cycle facilities to grow their economies, while ratcheting up pressure on any states seeking to disguise their nuclear weapons ambitions.”

Nuclear terrorism:

While not rejecting missile defence systems, and while supporting more effective missile controls through the Missile Technology Control Regime, he pointed out that “we spend more than $10 billion a year on missile defense, but far too little on securing nuclear materials around the world and improving security (including detection) at our ports and borders. We must focus our defenses on the most likely threats.”

Toward that end, he said he “will lead a global effort to secure all nuclear weapons materials at vulnerable sites within four years—a critical way to prevent terrorists from acquiring a nuclear bomb. I will work with Russia in this effort and with other countries to develop and implement a comprehensive set of standards to protect nuclear materials from theft.” He also promised actions that would “…strengthen policing and interdiction efforts; build state capacity to prevent theft, diversion, or spread of nuclear materials; and convene a summit on preventing nuclear terrorism.”

The pressures on the new President will of course be extraordinary. It is obviously not yet clear what priority these commitments will enjoy in an Obama Administration, but the agenda which the president-elect has set out is built around key actions that the disarmament community has been urging for a long time. The very fact that it will now find sympathy in the new White House is worth celebrating.