Disarming Conflict

If the 2010 Review simply extends the current global stalemate – with non-nuclear weapon states becoming increasingly restive about their non-proliferation obligations in the face of nuclear weapon states which continue to modernize their arsenals (even while allowing reductions in total warheads) and to treat nuclear weapons as a global security trump available only to them – the Treaty will most assuredly begin to unravel.

That is not the first time such a claim has been made about a disarmament conference that has subsequently failed, but there is this time a growing sense of foreboding that the current global nuclear deadlock cannot continue indefinitely without their being catastrophic consequences.

The new Australian Government of Kevin Rudd has decided to face this danger head on – with a new study. The temptations to cynicism abound.

The nuclear arms race should be collapsing under the sheer weight of the studies it has supported. Indeed, the new Australian study is itself a review of two earlier landmark studies – the Canberra Commission[i] and the Tokyo Forum.[ii] More recently, The Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission[iii]set out a broad disarmament agenda that is widely agreed and widely ignored.

But, hope springs eternal, and the times may well be changing. One certainty that spawns widespread hope is that George W. Bush will not be occupying the White House after January 20, 2009. And Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may no longer be the President of Iran. More than that will have to happen to justify even the most timorous optimism, but there are some welcome stirrings.

From April 28 to May 9 States Parties to the NPT met in Geneva as a Preparatory Committee (PrepCom) to try to ensure a positive result in 2010.[iv] It definitely produced no breakthrough, but two close observers, Ray Acheson of Reaching Critical Will and Michael Spies of Arms Control Reporter,[v]detected several areas of nascent agreement which could mature into actual progress in 2010.

In 2000 the NPT Review Conference agreement on 13 “practical steps” toward disarmament, and while they have since then been disowned by some states, this time most states agreed that they still constitute a clear road map for the implementation of Article VI – the Treaty’s disarmament article. One of those steps was early ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty – a declared priority for Barak Obama and something worth a serious look according to John McCain.

Step 12 of the 13 steps adopted in 2000 calls for regular reporting by states on progress made in implementing Article VI. A new working paper by Project Ploughshares[vi] sets out details of reporting to date and proposes a move toward agreed reporting standards in the future – the paper was distributed at this year’s PrepCom. Despite only modest levels of reporting to date, observers note that there continue to be important calls for the transparency, accountability, and confidence-building that reporting encourages.

The establishment of a nuclear weapon free zone in the Middle East was central to the 1995 indefinite extension of the NPT, and a well-received working paper by Egypt set out a number of concrete ways in which the 1995 Middle East resolution could be implemented – a development with direct relevance to the challenge of Iran.

Canada has been a strong advocate of building up the institutional infrastructure of the NPT, and this year joined other states in supporting the development of a standing secretariat to coordinate and manage the NPT’s meetings and processes. Most other Treaties have the benefit of ongoing secretariats, and most states now appear to believe that time has come for the NPT as well.

Japan has long been a champion of disarmament education and this year was joined by other delegations in emphasizing that a major push in public disarmament education could be instrumental in creating the conditions for a nuclear weapon free world.

A treaty to halt all production and stockpiling of fissile material for weapons purposes has long been a priority item on the global disarmament agenda, but work on such a committee has been held up in the UN Conference on Disarmament because the issue has been linked to a number of other efforts. A German working paper proposes ways to get beyond the current deadlock and provides a framework for further attention in the preparations for 2010.

Clearly, more will have to happen to make genuine nuclear disarmament a believable prospect in 2010 and beyond – and if another study can help point the way and build political will, well then, all the best to Australia, Kevin Rudd, and   their new Commission.

Stephen Harper and his no-longer-new Government in Ottawa should make sure they take a seat at this disarmament table.