The World and I

Last night one of the pilar's of Austrian politics in the last 20 years died. Jörg Haider was not only well known nationally but internationally as well (as his infamous trips to visit Saddam Hussein resulted in sanctions on Austria). What he is best known for is for leading the right-wing Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ) to successes, splitting from the party and creating a new one (the Alliance for the Future of Austria, BZÖ), which argubly is a little less right-wing (only a little) and then trippling his number of seats in parliament this election. However much I did not like Haider and disagreed completely with a policy, I have to give credit where credit is due: he was  a politician through and through.

I still have not quite come to terms with his sudden death this morning, but the more I think about it, the more I am beginning to comprehend the huge impact this is going to have on the Austrian political system. After our government dissolved itself, we had elections two weeks ago where there was a definite rightwards shift in the outcome. The big question became, would the two parties (BZÖ and FPÖ) be able to reconcile their differences and become one of the most powerful parties in Austria (VERY scary thought)? In the aftermath of the election, most analysts and myself agreed that this was a highly unlikely scenario as both Haider (leader of the BZÖ) and HC Strache (leader of the FPÖ) are very strong personalities and thus powersharing would not appeal to either.

However, a major aspect in this whole discussion, that no one really had to consider until this morning, is that Haider was the BZÖ. The majority of the Austrian population are really not sure what the actual differences between the two right wing parties are and essentially voted the BZÖ because of Haider, or put better, they voted for Haider. This is because he is the charasmatic, convincing politician, as I mentioned earlier. With his death, I am going to put forward the prediction that the BZÖ will not survive. I actually think that rather than merging with the FPÖ (which HC Strache is still against) the party will probably cease to exist and its memebers will wander back, hat in hand, to the FPÖ and (probably after some grovelling) be readmitted to the party, leaving Austria with one right-wing party.

If this the case, and my predictions hold some truth, then Haider's death becomes very suspicious (which was the first thought I had when I heard about the car crash this morning). There is no question at the moment that this has placed a HUGE obstacle for the BZÖ to enter the government and an even bigger obstacle for the right wing parties to form a coalition and both enter government (which was the great fear of the 70% of the Austrian population who did not vote them) - simply because no Haider, means no one to negotiate with as he is the party. Thus the timing of his death seems too perfect in terms of preventing the right wing parties entering the government. Then again, this may just be the cynic in me talking. I am however, extremely intriguied to watch Austrian politics develop in the aftermath of his death. Who knew a car crash could make such a difference?